The Impact of Snowmelt Water Availability on Agricultural Production and Its Indirect Economic Effects: A Hydro-Economic MRIO Model
Researcher:
Cazcarro Castellano, Ignacio
Congress:
18th Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics and 11th International Degrowth Conference
Participation type:
Comunicación oral
Other authors:
Guillermo Rodríguez-López, Jesús Revuelto, Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Julio Sánchez-Chóliz, Ignacio Cazcarro
Year:
2025
Location:
Oslo, Noruega
Water availability is a critical challenge for Mediterranean regions, where climate change exacerbates the frequency and severity of droughts. These regions heavily depend on snowmelt from mountain basins, which acts as a natural reservoir that supplies water during peak summer demand. This study examines how disruptions in snowmelt water availability affect agricultural production and their cascading economic impacts across sectors and regions, using an innovative hydro-economic model integrated with a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework.
The hydro-economic model provides a detailed analysis of the Ebro River Basin, divided into 17 zones to capture intra-annual water dynamics. It incorporates key processes, including inflows, outflows, reservoir management, and water allocation across agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors. A novel aspect of this model is the explicit consideration of snowmelt as a distinct water source, allowing precise quantification of its contribution to agricultural productivity. The integration of data from the SWAT model enables simulations of snowmelt reduction scenarios aligned with climate projections, emphasizing the vulnerability of regions dependent on nivopluvial regimes.
The MRIO model complements this hydrological analysis by linking agricultural outputs to broader economic systems. It includes 428 sectors, covering the Ebro Basin, Spain, the EU, and global markets. This framework allows the tracing of intersectoral dependencies and reveals how localized water shocks propagate through supply chains, creating ripple effects that impact both regional and international economies. The inclusion of interconnected sectors like food processing, logistics, and trade highlights the broader economic risks posed by declining water availability.
Preliminary results highlight the Ebro Basin’s significant reliance on snowmelt water, with projected snowpack declines of 25% leading to the loss of close to 7 thousand equivalent jobs and more than €200 million in value added, mostly (~92%) of which is concentrated in Spain (in the Spanish economy). The reduction in water availability impacts not only farming but also downstream industries essential to regional economies. These findings underscore the need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate economic losses and maintain resilience.
Simulations demonstrate how changes in snowmelt availability disrupt water allocation patterns, reduce agricultural yields, and weaken overall economic performance and quality of life. The study’s integration of detailed hydrological and economic frameworks provides actionable insights for policymakers. It emphasizes the critical role of snowmelt in sustaining current economic activity, lifestyles and ensuring the stability of vulnerable communities and industries in the face of climate change. It also highlights the irrationality of increased water demands.
Water availability is a critical challenge for Mediterranean regions, where climate change exacerbates the frequency and severity of droughts. These regions heavily depend on snowmelt from mountain basins, which acts as a natural reservoir that supplies water during peak summer demand. This study examines how disruptions in snowmelt water availability affect agricultural production and their cascading economic impacts across sectors and regions, using an innovative hydro-economic model integrated with a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework.
The hydro-economic model provides a detailed analysis of the Ebro River Basin, divided into 17 zones to capture intra-annual water dynamics. It incorporates key processes, including inflows, outflows, reservoir management, and water allocation across agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors. A novel aspect of this model is the explicit consideration of snowmelt as a distinct water source, allowing precise quantification of its contribution to agricultural productivity. The integration of data from the SWAT model enables simulations of snowmelt reduction scenarios aligned with climate projections, emphasizing the vulnerability of regions dependent on nivopluvial regimes.
The MRIO model complements this hydrological analysis by linking agricultural outputs to broader economic systems. It includes 428 sectors, covering the Ebro Basin, Spain, the EU, and global markets. This framework allows the tracing of intersectoral dependencies and reveals how localized water shocks propagate through supply chains, creating ripple effects that impact both regional and international economies. The inclusion of interconnected sectors like food processing, logistics, and trade highlights the broader economic risks posed by declining water availability.
Preliminary results highlight the Ebro Basin’s significant reliance on snowmelt water, with projected snowpack declines of 25% leading to the loss of close to 7 thousand equivalent jobs and more than €200 million in value added, mostly (~92%) of which is concentrated in Spain (in the Spanish economy). The reduction in water availability impacts not only farming but also downstream industries essential to regional economies. These findings underscore the need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate economic losses and maintain resilience.
Simulations demonstrate how changes in snowmelt availability disrupt water allocation patterns, reduce agricultural yields, and weaken overall economic performance and quality of life. The study’s integration of detailed hydrological and economic frameworks provides actionable insights for policymakers. It emphasizes the critical role of snowmelt in sustaining current economic activity, lifestyles and ensuring the stability of vulnerable communities and industries in the face of climate change. It also highlights the irrationality of increased water demands.